94th Academy Award PredictionsPart I It's that time of year again, kiddos- it's Oscar season! I feel like I was pretty underwhelmed with many of the nominated movies last year. This year was a breath of fresh air, thankfully. I was moved in so many ways by a wide variety of movies. I cried (I think more than I've ever cried in a full year of watching movies), I laughed, I felt joy, despair, tension, wistfulness, nostalgia, and everything in between. It was a good year to be back at the movies. Or maybe I was just happy to be back in a movie theatre again. That popcorn smell will really get ya. In any case, with the announcements due out in a number of hours (I meant to finish this on Friday and time got away from me, oops, stupid Olympics), here are my better-late-than-never predictions for the Oscar nominations! I feel like I did a good job of really trusting my gut with these predictions and not leaning heavily on very many sources. The lack of presence of an awards season has really made everything feel pretty wide open when it comes to frontrunners or feelings in the way voters might be leaning. Ultimately, I have (very) strong feelings about many of these movies, and I can only hope that my hopes and dreams materialize on Tuesday morning. I won't bore you with anymore incoherent rambling about my thought process behind this article. Let's predict the future! This is part one of what is traditionally a two-part article. Part 1 predictions the nominations, while part 2 predicts the winners of the awards themselves. Happy reading! Best PictureWhere else to start than the category that has the most mystery surrounding it? Every film on this list has something that could thrust it into the Best Picture conversation, and we also have no clear front runner with the ceremony just a few weeks away. The Power of the Dog and West Side Story both took home Golden Globes for Best Picture (Drama and Comedy/Musical, respectively). I’d be shocked if either of them missed the cut. Kenneth Branagh’s film Belfast has garnered tons of acclaim, and despite being perhaps the most obvious Oscar-bait film of the bunch, it’s still a solid movie that you can’t help but fall in love with. Dune is getting all the technical nominations from now until the end of time. Will Smith is going to carry King Richard into the Best Picture conversation, likewise Kristen Stewart with Spencer. I’ve been reading that The Tragedy of Macbeth could be snubbed, but it’s just so beautiful that I can’t possibly see it happening. Then, there are the three films that have asterisks next to them: CODA, Don’t Look Up, and Licorice Pizza. These are the three films I consider to be “on the bubble,” with any one of the movies in the “Contenders/Spoilers” section seamlessly trading places with them. House of Gucci, a movie I really didn’t like, is one of those movies. Nightmare Alley, another film I’ve only heard mixed things about at best, could also make its way into the conversation, considering Guillermo del Toro’s Oscar track record and the fact that it’s a remake of a beloved 40s classic. Being the Ricardos is also here because Hollywood loves to praise movies about itself. Who’s a good Hollywood? You are! You are! But could we see a nomination for Drive My Car, the epic road drama from Ryusuke Hamaguchi? If its director and screenplay are in the conversation, there’s no reason we couldn’t see it nominated for Best Picture as well. With a full slate of ten nominees this year, the field is wide open. Here's how I see things shaking out: The Predicted Ten (Flex nominees noted with *)
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Best DirectorJane Campion and Denis Villeneuve are locks for this category. While I would appreciate Joel Coen and Steven Spielberg being nominated for their brilliant adaptations of stage classics, I can definitely see the Academy snubbing them for someone like Maggie Gyllenhaal. As long as it isn’t Ridley Scott. Please, not Ridley Scott. The Predicted Five:
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Best Actor in a Leading RoleWill Smith leads the field thanks to his passionate performance as Richard Williams in King Richard. If nominated, he will likely be the favorite to take home the Oscar. Also in the field are Adam Driver, who was perhaps the only good thing about House of Gucci; Javier Bardem, who, like his co-star, will inexplicably earn a nomination for being in a movie about the industry; Leonardo DiCaprio, who I think will get in on the basis that he’s Leo DiCaprio and he cares about climate change in real life; and Andrew Garfield, who is finally achieving the mainstream popularity that he deserves. Outside the predicted five, names like Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquin Phoenix, and Denzel Washington could easily find themselves swapped in for any of the names above (outside of Will Smith). I’d personally love to see Cooper Hoffman nominated, as his turn in Licorice Pizza was so endearingly reminiscent of his father, who won in 2005 for Capote. Other names that have been tossed around are Mahershala Ali, Peter Dinklage, and Daniel Craig, as many are hoping the Academy will bestow some recognition for his turn as James Bond. The Predicted Five:
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Best Actress in a Leading RoleWomen unhinged. That’s pretty much the theme we’re after with this category. There are plenty of options to choose from when it comes to Leading Actresses. Lady Gaga and Kristen Stewart have been locks since their films were even announced, and so I’d be shocked if either of them were left out. Jessica Chastain is the only good thing about The Eyes of Tammy Faye, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s included in the field. And Olivia Colman (because the Academy loves Olivia Colman) should probably be recognized for her subtle and haunting performance in The Lost Daughter, in no small part thanks to a late awards push that saw her nominated for both the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild awards. And then there’s the host of others that could be in contention: Alana Haim, Jennifer Hudson (again, we love previous Oscar winners in biopics), Jennifer Lawrence, and last year’s winner, Frances McDormand. Even Penelope Cruz could sneak into the field with her performance in Parallel Mothers, even though the film won’t be nominated for Best International Film. And Renate Reinsve, who won Best Actress at Cannes (and is nominated for Best Actress at the BAFTAs), could earn some recognition for The Worst Person in the World. However, the real question remains about the two Golden Globe winners, Rachel Zegler and Nicole Kidman. I’m going to be cynical and say that the Academy will side with Kidman, snubbing Zegler in what would be one of the great travesties of Oscar nomination season. The Predicted Five:
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Best Actor in a Supporting RoleEnsemble films like Belfast and West Side Story will be out here feasting on these categories for supporting performances. In the Supporting Actor category, Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds find themselves stacked up against Jared Leto and Al Pacino, who gave… shall we say, interesting performances in House of Gucci. Knowing the Academy and their tendency to vote with the chaos regions of their brains, I have no doubt that Jared Leto will overact his way into a nomination. Whether Pacino does the same remains to be seen. What I do know is that both Troy Kotsur from CODA and Kodi Smit-McPhee from The Power of the Dog were both spectacular and deserve to be here. And while it’s unlikely that the men from West Side Story will get any love for their acting, we can certainly look forward to the Supporting Actress category, where there should be nominations out the wazoo for the women of that cast. The Predicted Five:
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Best Actress in a Supporting RoleAriana DeBose appears to be the frontrunner in this category, considering all the press she’s been receiving since West Side came out. I’m a firm believer/holding out hope that Rita Moreno will also receive a nomination, sixty years after she won for playing Anita in 1961’s West Side Story. I could go into detail about the ramifications of Moreno’s part in the movie, but consult my Best Films of 2021 list for that. Regardless, I’m holding out hope that Anitas past and present will earn nods this year. Also in the field is Caitriona Balfe, who, at the very least, deserves recognition for her brilliant work in Belfast. Aujanue Ellis and Ruth Negga also turn in passionate performances in King Richard and Passing, respectively. There’s a chance we could also see Cate Blanchett or Judi Dench, both former Oscar winners in this category, make an appearance. I would say Blanchett’s potential nomination is more likely than Dench’s, though. The Predicted Five:
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Best Original ScreenplayA wide range of scripts comprise this year’s slate potential nominees in the Original Screenplay category. I expect Spencer, Licorice Pizza, Belfast, and King Richard to all be involved- the only one that’s pending is the Adam McKay-David Sirota-penned satire Don’t Look Up, which is either getting heavily nominated or not nominated at all. I’d say it’s more than likely that we’ll see it in here, considering McKay is no stranger to the screenplay category, having won in 2015 for his adaptation of The Big Short. I have Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos on the outside looking in, but I wouldn’t put it past the Academy to sneak it in there somehow. I also wouldn’t count out Encanto or Benjamin Cleary’s Swan Song. The Predicted Five:
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Best Adapted ScreenplayThis year, the more crowded field among the screenplays belongs to the Adapted Screenplay category. Look at all of the potential nominees here, and you’ll see why it’ll be difficult to score a nod. We can be pretty sure that The Power of the Dog and Dune are probably getting nominated, though. I’m pretty well sold on Drive My Car, which is shaping up to be a major contender, despite being an international film (although, I guess since Roma and especially Parasite, anything is possible). I expect Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takemasa Oe’s script to score a nomination. I also feel pretty confident in The Lost Daughter. If Maggie Gyllenhaal doesn’t get nominated for director, she’ll surely get a screenplay nod. The only outlier is House of Gucci. A popular pick at the beginning of awards season, the movie has definitely lost some traction (mainly due to the film being… not that great). Could we see a film like CODA or Passing squeak into the field? Or could a heavy hitter like The Tragedy of Macbeth or Tony Kushner’s stunning adaptation of West Side Story find its way into the field? The Predicted Five:
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Best Animated FeaturePretty standard group of nominees here, populated mostly by Disney films. We’re getting the battle of the Brunos between Encanto (We Don’t Talk About Bruno) and Luca (Silencio, Bruno!), so that’s fun! Flee, the Danish documentary directed by Jonas Poher Rasmussen, is a potential triple threat this year- we could see it nominated in the Animated, International, and Documentary categories. The Predicted Five:
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Best International Feature FilmWith Parallel Mothers not chosen as the entrant for Spain, it deepens the intrigue for an already crowded group of movies in the International Feature Film category. I’ve spoken briefly about Drive My Car and Flee, but keep an eye out for Joaquim Trier’s dark rom-com-dram The Worst Person in the World, which was nominated for this year’s Palme d’Or at Cannes. Other familiar names include Asghar Farhadi and Paolo Sorrentino (A Hero and The Hand of God, respectively). Both have won this award previously for The Salesman and The Great Beauty, respectively. The Predicted Five:
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Best Documentary FeatureI won’t lie- I don’t know a whole lot about documentaries. But with the Academy’s short list for the category publicly available, I was able to narrow it down to five films that I thought at least looked the most interesting. Flee and Questlove’s Summer of Soul- which documents the Harlem Cultural Festival of 1969- are two I’ve definitely heard of, though. Nanfu Wang’s In the Same Breath is a timely film documenting both the Chinese and American responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic. The Rescue, a film by Elizabeth Chai Vasarheyli and Jimmy Chin, whom you may remember for their 2019 winning documentary Free Solo, documents the events of the Tham Luang cave rescue, where 12 junior soccer players were trapped in a cave in northern Thailand for 18 days. Finally, there’s Jessica Kingdon’s Ascension, produced by MTV, which focuses on the Chinese dream across different social classes - the film had its premiere at the Tribeca Film Festival, where it won Best Documentary. The Predicted Five:
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The Short Films (Animated/Live Action/Documentary)No predictions here. I have no basis for what any of them are about- plus I typically like to watch them all anyways, so when we do this again before the ceremony in March, you'll have my predictions about the winners :) Best Original ScoreJonny Greenwood was very busy this year, scoring three films, two of which are in contention for Best Original Score. While Spencer was probably a little more attainable to ears not quite attuned to Greenwood’s often uneasy and unsettling scores, his work on The Power of the Dog is just as gripping as the film itself. There are some other favorites here too- Alexandre Desplat features heavily on The French Dispatch, Wes Anderson’s newest effort; Longtime Coen Brothers collaborator Carter Burwell deals a haunting, droning score for The Tragedy of Macbeth, and Jeymes Samuel’s score for The Harder They Fall masterfully brings the old west into the 21st century. But, of course, everybody’s talking about Dune. Just when you thought Hans Zimmer couldn’t get any better, he brought out the bagpipes, and it was all over at that point. The Predicted Five:
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Best Original SongMan, people are going to be upset that “Dos Oruguitas” is the song from Encanto that gets nominated for Best Original Song and not “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” or “Surface Pressure” or any other song currently circulating on TikTok. I can’t help it that they didn’t submit any of them for this category, and landed on Dos Oruguitas instead. Oh well. There are some good tunes in this category. I would expect Jennifer Hudson to earn a nomination for her and Carole King’s original song from Respect, as well as the nostalgia kick from more Brian Wilson music from his documentary Long Promised Road. But I’m going out on a limb and saying that Billie Eilish and Finneas have had this award locked up since the song debuted. No Time To Die has it in the bag. It’s not the best Bond theme song, but it’s certainly the best song of the ones on the short list. Justice for “Down to Joy” and “Just Look Up,” please. The Predicted Five:
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And lastly, here are some baseless claims about the technical awards, based on the shortlists the Academy released a few weeks ago. I’ll get into more detail about each nominee as we get closer to the ceremony itself, but for now, please amuse yourself with my rapid fire technical awards predictions. Best CinematographyThe Predicted Five:
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Best Costume DesignThe Predicted Five:
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Best Film EditingThe Predicted Five:
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Best Makeup and HairstylingThe Predicted Five:
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Best Production DesignThe Predicted Five:
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Best SoundThe Predicted Five:
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Best Visual EffectsThe Predicted Five:
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What are your predictions for this year's Oscars? Please leave a comment below. The 94th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 27th, at 8pm on ABC.
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