90th Academy Awards Predictions Act 3- A Reveal Updated March 2nd, 2018
Jimmy Kimmel will once again return to host this year's Oscars.
Alright, kids. Here we are. It’s that time of the year again. Oscar Sunday is upon us.
I’m not going to give much intro here, since a lot of my elaboration is done in each category. But this ceremony could get very interesting. And I don’t just mean because they’ll announce the wrong best picture AGAIN.
So let’s get into it.
Also this article is unofficially sponsored by MoviePass.
We have our frontrunner in Martin McDonough's dark comedy, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri."
The Nominees: - Call Me By Your Name(Sony Pictures Classics) - Darkest Hour(Focus) - Dunkirk (Warner Bros.) - Get Out(Universal) - Lady Bird(A24) - Phantom Thread (Focus) - The Post (20th Century Fox) - The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight) - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
Will win:The Shape of Water Should win:Dunkirk Could win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri According to Andrew: A nomination for The Big Sick.
I have never been so wrong as I have this awards season. In all the years I’ve been seriously going to the movies and seriously predicting the winners, I’ve been wrong before- but not like this. Originally I thought we’d finally see the advent of Christopher Nolan as an Oscar-winning filmmaker, as I found his film Dunkirk to be the better pieces of filmmaking I’ve seen, potentially his best since The Dark Knight. And then came Greta Gerwig’s quirky coming-of-age comedy Lady Bird, which became the best reviewed movie ever on Rotten Tomatoes. And then, from out of nowhere came The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. These two are also terrific, but I really hadn’t considered them to be on my radar to win Best Picture… until they started winning all the Golden Globe and SAG awards.
Overall, this was a pretty solid year for movies. Perhaps not in comparison to years past, but movies this year pushed the envelope in terms social commentary, filmmaking techniques, and storytelling. There’s something for everyone this season. We had everything from gay love stories to bleak romance dramas, from fantasy love stories to biting satire, from period dramas to horror films, of all things; from coming-of-age stories to gritty war films. This season really had it all, and there’s not much to complain about.
Since I am required to pick a winner, I’m going to choose The Shape of Water. In the grand scheme of things, major recognition for this film (and Three Billboards) has made other films like Dunkirk, Get Out, and Lady Bird lose momentum in the race. Don’t get me wrong. Those three are great (and if I had my way, I’d pick them myself). But Shape of Waterappears to be the frontrunner at the moment. While it didn’t win the Golden Globe, BAFTA, or SAG Awards, it has picked up a Critics Choice win for Best Picture. The current frontrunner is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. It’s garnered a lot of praise, and synchronizes itself well with the political climate, and especially in the wake of the #MeToo movement and the Parkland School Shooting, it makes sense that a film about political activism should receive the praise it has. And with a filmmaker like Martin McDonough at the helm, a cool blend of dark comedy and sharp drama (a signature of the British wordsmith) is certainly a big help. As it stands right now, Three Billboardsshould beat Shape of Water for Best Picture.
But we’re not the ones who make the decisions on who wins and who loses. Award shows are dumb, I know.
Three Billboards has also garnered its fair share of controversy due to sloppy radical politics, dare-I-say ridiculous plot points, and its supposedly “redemptive” arc of a racist cop. It’s also just not as good as McDonough’s other films, particularly In Bruges.
Now, I don’t think those factors are enough to lose Best Picture for Three Billboards. Nor are they enough to sway the pendulum the way of Shape of Water.
But I think the Academy has a tendency to fuck with us. And so, with everything going on outside the walls of the movie theatres around the country, I think the Academy will play it self. They’ll choose escapism over facing the harsh reality of the world just because they can. Another thing The Shape of Water has going for it is the charisma of its director, Guillermo del Toro, who has just about swept the best director race at every awards show this season.
You’ll notice that (again with the Academy-fuckery) Martin McDonough is NOT nominated for Best Director, as he has been at these other ceremonies. Three Billboards is probably not a part of what I call the “Argo effect,” in that it wins Best Picture despite not being nominated for Best Director. The absence of McDonough will prove that the Academy probably doesn’t have the faith in Three Billboards to win Best Picture.
And so, we have The Shape of Water. Maybe by default- and maybe because it’s an entrancing tale of unorthodox romance that pushes the envelope of both film and the contemporary Oscar campaign.
Or maybe I’m just plain old wrong and the Academy will pick Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
(Also LOL remember when they announced the wrong Best Picture winner last year and the world EXPLODED? Good times. Gooooood times.
Best Achievement in Directing
Guillermo del Toro has continued to rack up award wins this season for his work on "The Shape of Water."
The Nominees: - Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread - Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird - Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk - Jordan Peele, Get Out - Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Will win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water Should win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Could win: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird According to Andrew: I mean, ideally, Nolan. But I want to see some kind of upset in this category, either Greta or Jordan.
What can I say about this category? For all the mistakes the Golden Globes made, the Oscars certainly made up for by nominating both Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele. But, damn, these are five brilliantly directed films, aren’t they? I’d obviously love to see Chris Nolan pick up his first Oscar for Dunkirk, or perhaps even a shock from Gerwig or Peele, or maybe even Anderson for his brilliantly underrated work on Phantom Thread. I think the win will go to del Toro, though. The Shape of Wateris seriously in the mix for a best picture win, and since Martin McDonough isn’t nominated here, I can see Guillermo del Toro nabbing the best director award, further increasing the drama leading up to Best Picture.
Best Performance by Actor in a Leading Role
I finally got around to seeing "Darkest Hour." And yes, Gary Oldman is that good in it.
The Nominees: - Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name - Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread - Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out - Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour - Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Will win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Should win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name Could win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Once again, good on you, Academy, for not nominating James Franco. I mean, yes, his performance as Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist was great, his behaviour off-screen did him no favors on the Oscar campaign trail. While I was a bit shocked not to see Tom Hanks in this category, I was pleasantly surprised to see Daniel Kaluuya there for Get Out, as well as Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq. Will we see his scowl when Gary Oldman wins best actor this year? Probably. After seeing Phantom Thread and seeing that Daniel Day-Lewis isn’t really even the main character in that movie (I mean, he is, but he’s really just a catalyst for Vicky Krieps’ performance), Oldman is the favorite to win the category. His performance in Darkest Hour as Winston Churchill may not be the film he rightfully should win for, but Oldman will finally cross his name off the list of greatest actors to never win an Oscar. Don’t count out Timothée Chalamet, all you Chalametniacs, as the young man could add to his already fantastic breakout year with a surprise win as well.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Is there magic in the water for Sally Hawkins?
The Nominees: - Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water - Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Margot Robbie, I, Tonya - Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird - Meryl Streep, The Post Will and should win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Could win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
This is a two-horse race, no matter how much you think Margot Robbie deserves to win. It’s all the talking vs. none of the talking. Frances McDormand vs. Sally Hawkins. McDormand delivers a powerhouse performance as Mildred Hayes, a mother attempting to get the police to reopen the case on finding the man who brutally raped and murdered her daughter. Hawkins plays a mute woman, Elisa Esposito, who falls in love with a mysterious sea creature held in captivity at her place of work, a government laboratory outside Baltimore. Meryl and Saoirse and Margot are all great in their own rights, but Hawkins and McDormand are a cut above. I think McDormand has the edge in this fight.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Your dark horse, Willem Dafoe in "The Florida Project."
- Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project - Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water - Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World - Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will and should win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Could win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project, or Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards According to Andrew: Anyone but Christopher Plummer in this category. I haven’t seen his film, but you probably shouldn’t an Oscar nod for doing a re-shoot. Also, where was Michael Stuhlbarg? In any of this?
Michael Stuhlbarg had an incredible year this year, and the Academy decided to give his nomination to Christopher Plummer for doing a re-shoot. I’m not really sure what to think. Originally, I thought Willem Dafoe had this one in the bag. But after seeing Three Billboards, which features some very strong male supporting talent, I had to rethink my take. I think the category belongs to Sam Rockwell. If it isn’t Sam Rockwell, it’s probably Richard Jenkins after him. I guess being third is what Woody Harrelson gets for what happens to him halfway through the movie.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Laurie Metcalf has gone from being the favorite to playing second fiddle to Allison Janney. Could she steal a win here?
The Nominees: - Mary J. Blige, Mudbound - Allison Janney, I, Tonya - Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird - Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread - Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya Should win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Could win: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound According to Andrew: Where was Holly Hunter’s nomination for The Big Sick?
As much as I don’t want it to be Allison Janney, it’ll probably be Allison Janney. In all seriousness, I find her character to be far too one-sided and lacking any kind of traits that make us empathize with her. As for Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird, her performance is accessible both to parents and kids- she’s someone both parties can recognize and identify with- even though her motherly instincts can come off cold and uncaring at times. Call me crazy, but I think something’s got to give. Don’t be surprised if we see Metcalf get the upset win. And then we have Mary J. Blige in Mudbound. I think Mary J.’s shot will be better tuned to the Best Original Song category instead of here. I didn’t find myself caring much about her character in Mudbound anyways.
Best Original Screenplay
"The Big Sick" made me cry. If it wins Best Original Screenplay, I'll probably cry again.
The Nominees: - The Big Sick, Kumail Nanjiani & Emily V. Gordon - Get Out, Jordan Peele - Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig - The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonough
Will win: I refuse. But also Get Out, Jordan Peele. Should win: The Big Sick, Kumail Nanjiani & Emily V. Gordon Could win: Literally all of them. This category is so stacked and I wouldn’t be mad if any of them won. Realistically, The Shape of Water.
I will restate my “Could win” section. Literally all of them could win. This category is so stacked and I wouldn’t be mad if any of then won. Dunkirk and Star Wars aside, these five films were all featured in my “Top 10 Films of 2017” list. In fact, I think they were all featured inside the top 7 or so. I am predicting an upset win for Get Out here, which also won the Writers Guild Award for Best Original Screenplay, a category in which Three Billboards was not nominated. With a category like this (UGH these screenplays are all so good), there are bound to be some snubs. Since only one script can win, we'll have four other equally deserving nominees like Lady Bird and The Big Sick going through unrecognized. But seriously, think about any of these people winning an Oscar, and how happy that would make them (and me, because it’s all about me). Seriously! Think about it!
Best Adapted Screenplay
James Ivory, who wrote "Call Me By Your Name," is 89 years old. The dude directed "A Room With a View," "Howard's End," and "The Remains of the Day." It appears he's finally going to win an Oscar.
The Nominees: -Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory - The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadler & Michael H. Weber - Logan, Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green - Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin - Mudbound, Dee Rees & Virgil Wiliams
Will and should win: Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory Could win: Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin
Again, the nominees in this category are all just as deserving of a win as the five in the original screenplay category. I like Call Me By Your Name here. I think we’re treated to some instantly classic lines and moments penned for the screen by James Ivory. Mudbound and The Disaster Artist might also pose threats to the prize, as might Oscar winner Aaron Sorkin, who makes his directorial debut with Molly’s Game. Or, could it be, for the first time, a superhero movie getting a win in a major writing category? Maybe Logancould surprise us all. For now, expect the 89-year old Ivory to take home his first Academy Award.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: - The Boss Baby(Dreamworks) - The Breadwinner(GKids) - Coco(Pixar) - Ferdinand (20th Century Fox) - Loving Vincent(Altitude)
Will and should win:Coco Could win:Loving Vincent
It’s not really much of a contest here. Pixar churned out another brilliant animated flick with Coco, which combines gorgeous visuals, gripping, emotional drama, and heartbreaking music with the spirit of Dia de Muertos. Every other nominee should fall by the wayside here. If there’s any second choice, I would probably take Loving Vincent, the which was that film created by hundreds of artists moving the film in traditional-animation style.
Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat composed "The Shape of Water." Could he go home with his second Oscar?
The Nominees: - Dunkirk- Hans Zimmer - Phantom Thread- Jonny Greenwood - The Shape of Water- Alexandre Desplat - Star Wars: The Last Jedi- John Williams - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- Carter Burwell
Will win:The Shape of Water- Alexandre Desplat Should win:Phantom Thread- Jonny Greenwood Could win:Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- Carter Burwell According to Andrew: Honestly, I’m not picky. These are five brilliant scores.
I haven’t been moved by a score in a really, really long time. And then I saw Phantom Thread, and listened to Jonny Greenwood’s truly remarkable music, and my jaw fell off my face. Greenwood’s score is comprised mostly of piano and sweeping strings, but it only further accentuates the beautifully twisted world that Paul Thomas Anderson created for the movie.
As for the others, The Shape of Wateris probably the frontrunner here. Desplat is one of my favorite composers, and he’ll probably take home another Oscar for his quaint score of one of the most unusual love stories ever put to film.
Best Original Song
"Stand Up for Something," recorded by Andra Day and Oscar-winner Common, is featured in the film "Marshall."
The Nominees: - “Mighty River,” from Mudbound- Music/Lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson - “Mystery of Love,” from Call Me By Your Name- Music/Lyrics by Sufjan Stevens - “Remember Me,” from Coco- Music/Lyrics by Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez - “Stand Up for Something,” from Marshall, Music/Lyrics by Diane Warren and Common - “This is Me,” from The Greatest Showman- Music/Lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
Will and should win: “Remember Me,” from Coco- Music/Lyrics by Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez Could win: “The Mystery of Love,” from Call My By Your Name- Music/Lyrics by Sufjan Stevens According to Andrew: Where is “You Shouldn’t Look at Me That Way,” from Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool?? #JusticeforElvisCostello
“Remember Me” will be the winner here. There are like three different versions of it in the film, and all of them are spectacular. With literally one song, Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez (who are the anti-Pasek-and-Pauls, they can be featured all year every year and still do no wrong) can make us tap our feet, sing along, and cry. “Remember Me” will be the winner. Count on it. Also, I’m still waiting on an apology from the Academy for not nominating Elvis Costello for “You Shouldn’t Look At Me That Way” from Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool.
Best Documentary Feature
Agnès Varda and JR in the quirky French documentary "Faces Places."
The Nominees: - Abacus: Small Enough to Jail - Faces Places - Icarus - Last Men in Aleppo - Strong Island
Will win:Faces Places Should win:Strong Island Could win:Icarus
So I’ll be honest, I didn’t see any of the documentaries this year. But I hear Faces Placesis pretty good! And Strong Island has a really cool backstory. So let’s go with those. As for Icarus, Abacus, and Last Men in Aleppo? Be honest with yourself, how excited are you really about the Best Documentary Feature category?
Best Foreign Language Film
Diane Kruger in the German film "In the Fade."
The Nominees: - A Fantastic Woman(Chile) - The Insult (Lebanon) - Loveless (Russia) - On Body and Soul(Hungary) - The Square (Sweden)
Will win: The Square(Sweden) Could win: A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Ah, yes. Best Foreign Language Film. I definitely saw all of these.
But Andrew, how can you make a prediction when you haven’t seen the films?
Because it’s my blog. So shut up.
Best Animated Short Film
Kobe Bryant’s love letter to the game he played so well, “Dear Basketball.”
The Nominees: - Dear Basketball - Garden Party - Lou - Negative Space - Revolting Rhymes
Will win:Lou Should win:Dear Basketball Could win: Garden Party, Negative Space or Revolting Rhymes
Okay okay okay I really want to talk about the shorts, because I actually watched all of them this year (thank you, IFC Center), and LET ME TELL YOU HOW AMAZING THEY ARE.
Maybe it’s a sports thing, but Dear Basketball had me in tears not even three minutes into the animated shorts screening- which is a new record for me, if we’ve ever been to the movies together.
The animated shorts are all so vastly different, from animation style- ranging from hand-drawn and stop motion to realistic, high-quality CGI- to storytelling forms- Revolting Rhymes is more long-form, clocking in at around 20 minutes, while Negative Space clocks in around 5). It was very, very difficult for me to pick a favorite.
All in all, it’ll probably be Lou, as Pixar seems to have a habit of taking home these short film awards (they also won last year for Piper). If I had my way, though, I would want to see Kobe Bryant add “Oscar winner” to his list of accolades.
Best Live Action Short Film
Rachel Shenton (right) wrote and stars in the heartbreaking short film “The Silent Child.”
The Nominees: - Dekalb Elementary - The Eleven O’Clock - My Nephew Emmett - The Silent Child - Watu Wote (All of Us)
Will and should win:The Silent Child Could win:The Eleven O’Clock or My Nephew Emmett
This is a category exemplary of the phrase “one of these things is not like the other,” where that one differing thing is The Eleven O’Clock, where we see a comedic mix-up of two supposed psychiatrists thinking the other is a patient who thinks he’s a psychiatrist. It is the only comedy of the bunch, and is also the only one of the five nominees to clean itself up- meaning that it is the only true “short film,” and does not really lend itself to be opened up into a full-length film.
All of the nominees share a common theme: struggling characters. Whether it’s a disturbed young man attempting to carry out a school shooting or his hostage, a receptionist, attempting to calm him down; a social worker for the hearing impaired, the little girl she assists, or her impatient, frustrated mother; a black man who can only watch as his nephew is dragged away to his death; two conflicting psychiatrists; or a Christian woman caught in the crossfire of an ongoing religious and political conflict, all of the films makes us sympathize with the actors who bring the characters to life on screen.
The Silent Child, out of these five, packs the most emotional punch and has the most big-picture impact, as it brilliant combines multiple dramatic elements (coming-of-age, assisting with a disability, with a sinister undertone of family drama) with contemporary cultural relevance.
Best Documentary- Short Subject
Jan Rader is one of three extraordinary women helping to combat an overdose epidemic in West Virginia in the Netflix documentary short, “Heroin(e).”
The Nominees: - Edith + Eddie - Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 - Heroin(e) - Knife Skills - Traffic Stop
Will and should win:Heroin(e) Could win:Knife Skills or Traffic Stop
Initially, I was less than impressed with the documentary shorts. And it could be because documentaries aren’t really my thing unless they interest me. I can get on board with just about anything, except if you’re going to beat me over the head with learning. I found Edith + Eddie charming, but dry. I thought Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 to be insightful, but a bit long and a tad hard to focus on. And I found Traffic Stop to take too long to get the to the point (after I spent the first 30 minutes not really caring about the people involved).
And then I saw Heroin(e), which was produced by Netflix, the same company that saw a win last year in this category for The White Helmets. Heroin(e), along with its equally-compelling companion, Knife Skills, both deal with the betterment of life for those in very dark places. Heroin(e) is the superior film, both of the duo and the category as a whole, as it packs the most emotional punch about extraordinary women trying to fight the heroin crisis in West Virginia. I think Netflix wins its second Best Documentary Short Oscar in a row.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Roger Deakins could go home with his first Oscar for the brilliantly-shot "Blade Runner 2049."
The Nominees: - Blade Runner 2049- Roger Deakins - Darkest Hour- Bruno Delbonnel - Dunkirk- Hoyte Van Hoytema - Mudbound- Rachel Morrison - The Shape of Water- Dan Laustsen
Will win: Blade Runner 2049- Roger Deakins Should win:Darkest Hour- Bruno Delbonnel Could win:Mudbound- Rachel Morrison or The Shape of Water- Dan Laustsen
How hasn’t Roger Deakins won an Oscar yet? The guy’s been nominated 14 times for films like The Shawshank Redemption, Fargo, No Country for Old Men, The Reader, Skyfall, True Grit, and now Blade Runner 2049. He does face some pretty stiff competition in entries from Bruno Delbonnel for the gorgeously-shot Darkest Hour, Hoyte Van Hoytema for Dunkirk, and Dan Laustsen for The Shape of Water. Also in the fray is Rachel Morrison, whose work on Mudbound made her the first woman to ever be nominated in the cinematography category.
Best Achievement in Film Editing
"Baby Driver" is the film that I always wanted to make. Bravo, Paul Machliss.
The Nominees: - Baby Driver- Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos - Dunkirk- Lee Smith - I, Tonya- Tatiana S. Riegel - The Shape of Water- Sidney Wolinsky - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- Jon Gregory
Will win: Dunkirk- Lee Smith Should win: Baby Driver- Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos Could win: The Shape of Water- Sidney Wolinsky
Man, I really wish I made Baby Driver. A car-chase/heist film literally choreographed to music? If that’s not my type of movie, I don’t know what is. As for the likely winner of this category, it is here that we should start to re-recognize Dunkirk as the brilliant piece of cinema, at least technically speaking, that it is. Expect the film editing category to be one of many technical awards Dunkirk takes home. Hopefully. I’m really terrible at predicting these things.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Look at this dress. LOOK AT THIS DRESS.
The Nominees: - Beauty and the Beast- Jacqueline Durran - Darkest Hour- Jacqueline Durran - Phantom Thread- Mark Bridges - The Shape of Water- Luis Sequeira - Victoria and Abdul- Consolata Boyle
Will and should win:Phantom Thread- Mark Bridges Could win:The Shape of Water- Luis Sequeira or Darkest Hour- Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread is a movie about fashion design. And look at that dress. How could Mark Bridges not earn himself a win for Best Costume Design? I don’t want to be overconfident, but I think Bridges has it in the bag (have I jinxed him? Probably). Other prediction pages say Jacqueline Durran for Darkest Hour or Luis Sequeira for The Shape of Water could steal a win, so I’ll throw them in as well. But I really think Mark Bridges absolutely deserves a win for costume design.
Best Achievement in Production Design
Another wonderful Disney live-action remake, "Beauty and the Beast."
The Nominees: - Beauty and the Beast- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer - Blade Runner 2049- Dennis Gassner and Alessandra Querzola - Darkest Hour- Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer - Dunkirk- Nathan Crowley and Gary Fettis - The Shape of Water- Paul D. Austerberry, Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin
Will win:The Shape of Water- Paul D. Austerberry, Shane Vieau and Jeff Melvin Should win:Dunkirk- Nathan Crowley and Gary Fettis Could win:Blade Runner 2049- Dennis Gassner and Alessandra Querzola
The Shape of Water is an absolutely stunning film, from its score, to its costumes, and especially its production and set design. It has a feel to it similar to the game Bioshock, which also reminding me of a Tim Burton film. I don’t really think that any other nominee can hold a candle to the brilliant design of The Shape of Water.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
It's the year of the prosthetic face makeup, and if it isn't Gary Oldman in "Darkest Hour," it has to be Jacob Tremblay in "Wonder."
The Nominees: - Darkest Hour- Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Luci Sibbick - Victoria & Abdul- Daniel Phillips and Lou Shepperd - Wonder- Arjen Tuiten
Will and should win:Darkest Hour- Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Luci Sibbick Could win: Wonder- Arjen Tuiten
It’s the battle of the facial prosthetics, between Darkest Hour and Wonder. Gary Oldman’s Winston Churchill is probably the popular choice, so I can see Darkest Hour making off with the prize. Jacob Tremblay is cute and all, but I like Churchill’s neck fat as the winner in this one. But, then again, Suicide Squad won this award last year over Star Trek, so all logic pretty much just goes out the window at this point, doesn’t it?
Best Visual Effects
Andy Serkis embodies the frightening Caesar in "War for the Planet of the Apes."
The Nominees: - Blade Runner 2049- Richard H. Hoover, Paul Lambert, John Nelson and Gerd Nefzer - Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2- Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick - Kong: Skull Island- Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, and Mike Meinardus - Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Ben Morris, Michael Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould - War for the Planet of the Apes- Joe Leterri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist
Will win:Blade Runner 2049- Richard H. Hoover, Paul Lambert, John Nelson and Gerd Nefzer Should win:Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Ben Morris, Michael Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould Could win:War for the Planet of the Apes- Joe Leterri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist
Visual effects are always a fun category. Honestly, I’ve got no clue for this one. I like the idea that Blade Runner is finally going to get some Oscar love, after the original was nominated and shut out back in 1983. We might also see Star Wars add to its resume of Oscar wins. Or, who knows? Any of these films could surprise us.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce earn sound editing nominations for “Star Wars: The Last Jedi.”
The Nominees: - Baby Driver- Julian Slater - Blade Runner 2049- Mark Mangini & Theo Green - Dunkirk- Richard King - The Shape of Water- Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira - Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce
Will win: Baby Driver- Julian Slater Should win: Dunkirk- Richard King Could win:Star Wars: The Last Jedi- Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce
Did I mention how much I liked Baby Driver? What brilliant incorporation of soundtrack and other real-world sounds. I’m also really liking Dunkirk and Star Wars as potential spoilers in the category. When Laura Dern does that thing with the ship? I was SHOOK. That ALONE merited a nomination for this category.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Christopher Nolan's epic war film, "Dunkirk."
The Nominees: - Baby Driver- Tim Cavagin, Julian Slater and Mary H. Ellis - Blade Runner 2049- Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth - Dunkirk- Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo and Mark Weingarten - The Shape of Water- Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier - Star Wars: The Last Jedi- David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson
Will win:Dunkirk- Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo and Mark Weingarten Should win:Baby Driver- Tim Cavagin, Julian Slater and Mary H. Ellis Could win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi- David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson
So, by this point in the article, you’ll probably see that I only have Dunkirk winning two technical awards. That’s because I’m clearly being extra careful when it comes to looking out for upsets. I also really, really like Baby Driver. Dunkirk should definitely take this one, though.
Leading the way in terms of nominations (at least, by what I’ve predicted), is The Shape of Water, which I have predicted will earn four wins on Sunday night. Three Billboards comes in second with three projected wins, and Blade Runner, Darkest Hour, and Dunkirk all with two apiece.
Award shows are dumb. We know that. But the Oscars always seem to reel us back in again, one way or another. They’ll air on ABC Sunday at 8pm.
In the meantime, who’s your pick to win Best Picture? Leave a comment down below.